Literature:
Unfortunately, I have never seen a study that compares these two approaches to teaching Calculus (nor did a cursory search through ProQuest and Google Scholar produce anything of import). I expect a reason for this is that your terminology is nonstandard. The late transcendentals approach is somewhat akin to what might be done in a (U.S.) course on pre-Calculus.
I did see at least one study that might be of interest to you in this regard; essentially, it introduces ideas around finding "turning points" for polynomials and rational functions, and later on connects these ideas to finding derivatives for the polynomials.
Cherkas, B. (2003). Finding polynomial and rational function turning points in precalculus. International journal of computers for mathematical learning, 8(2), 215-234.
Excerpt:
In today’s typical precalculus course, students are informed that a polynomial
of degree $n$ has at most $n−1$ turning points. Representative graphs
of polynomial functions are also given to help students recognize turning
points. Yet it is only for quadratic functions that students are asked to find
turning points (vertices), using the technique of completing the square. The
general topic of finding turning points is left to calculus, where students
learn to compute derivatives, set them equal to zero, and solve the resulting
equations. In the case of polynomial and rational functions, however, it
is unnecessary to wait for calculus. The purpose of this snapshot is to
describe procedures that rely on the Fundamental Theorem of Algebra,
spatial reasoning, and solving equations to find turning points for any
polynomial or rational function with real coefficients.
The article continues a bit later on:
To gain insight into what happens behind the scenes when using this
method, we first examine general cubic functions, obtaining a complete
classification for the number and location of turning points in terms of the
cubic’s coefficients. With the understanding gained from this investigation,
we link this algebraic approach for finding turning points to derivatives
of polynomials. We then illustrate these techniques with the assistance of
Mathematica to find all turning points for specific polynomials of degrees
$4$ and $5$.
Major drawbacks of the study are, first, that it incorporates technology as a major part (which is not something you were asking about), and, second, the Mathematica approach that is discussed for a laboratory portion of the course was not explicitly connected to the classroom-based learning.
Still, the author might agree with your skepticism about the different ways Calculus is initially broached, though perhaps he would suggest directing some of the late approach's material to what would be learned prior to a first course in Calculus. As he writes in the discussion section:
In any precalculus study of turning points, it is natural to include the
related concepts of local and global maxima and minima. These visually rich ideas add to the overloading of calculus with concepts that can be
introduced earlier in a revised precalculus curriculum. Presenting these
concepts in advance of differential calculus introduces a spiral effect to
the learning curve: students first see the concepts in the limited perspective
of precalculus and subsequently revisit them in the more general context
of calculus. Introducing optimization problems in precalculus that are
modeled by polynomial or rational functions is part of this spiral approach.
It also provides students with realistic precursors of the specific cognitive
demands they will encounter in calculus.
My own thoughts:
One difficulty in comparing the approaches you have described is that it is not clear (to me) what success would look like. Your example suggestions are "higher pass rates" and "success rates in courses which depend on calculus." For the former suggestion: I think it is clear (perhaps with some thought) that this will not be a good metric. For the latter suggestion: Calculus students are remarkably diverse with regard to their goals. Are they intending to follow differential Calculus with integral Calculus? Are they intending to take Physics or Engineering courses? Are they satisfying pre-med requirements? Are they satisfying general education requirements? Etc.
Allow me to go out on a limb and suggest that the fundamental (the word choice is no accident...) goal of learning Calculus is to make sense of the Fundamental Theorem of Calculus. In particular, I think the goal must be for students to see the relation between differentiation and integration.
For polynomials (say, with coefficients in $\mathbb{R}$ or $\mathbb{Q}$), they have the nice property that differentiating and integrating is not so tough: The derivative of such a polynomial is a polynomial; the antiderivative of such a polynomial gives a family of polynomials.
But you are suggesting rational functions, too, and now we will have a problem. In fairness, you are asking about an approach to teaching "differential Calculus"; but I think it is nice to have an earlier familiarity with the more commonly appearing functions so that, when the time for finding antiderivatives comes around, some of the cognitive load can be reduced.
The question of which functions should be covered is a difficult one, particularly with regard to finding antiderivatives. Even after going through the full Calculus sequence, a student might rightfully ask: What is the antiderivative of $\sin(x)/x$? What is the antiderivative of $x\tan x$? By a theorem of Liouville, these antiderivatives cannot be expressed in elementary functions; cf. former and latter.
And so there will be picking and choosing when it comes to which functions are to be introduced, and to which derivatives or antiderivatives are to be taken. Given the nature of the AP examinations and the subsequent courses in Calculus in most mathematics departments, I think it wise to introduce at least the functions mentioned in what you call the early approach.
For students who do not intend to take the AP examination (or an equivalent one) and departments that can organize themselves around this nonstandard approach - perhaps they have a different idea of the fundamental goal of learning Calculus? - it would be interesting to see whether lightening the cognitive load early on will pay dividends later, or whether introducing bits and pieces earlier on will make their re-appearance later more palatable.
Conclusion:
In most situations, I would advocate sticking to the early approach. With regard to theory: It would be interesting to compare the two (perhaps such studies exist and I am just unaware of the terminology!). With regard to practice: For a mathematics educator who is interested in the late approach, perhaps its inclusion in a pre-Calculus course would make for a better fit.