Questions tagged [probability]

For questions about the teaching of probability, dealing with students misconceptions in probability, and explaining probability theory paradoxes.

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45
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24answers
17k views

How to explain Monty Hall problem when they just don't get it

Talking to some friends, I was asked to explain the answer to the Monty Hall problem (see also here;) .... they were having some trouble because whoever explained it to them didn't do a very good job. ...
19
votes
14answers
4k views

Probability Misconception: Two Bags with Black and White Marbles

I asked this question in a class of 13-year-old students: Bag 1 contains 2 black marbles and 1 white one. Bag 2 contains 20 black marbles and 10 white ones. Which bag is more likely to yield a black ...
4
votes
1answer
275 views

The most transparent exposition of Bayes' Theorem

I am seeking the most transparent exposition of Bayes' Theorem (for undergraduates). I would prefer to avoid mentioning "prior" and "posterior," and instead focus on frequencies. The Wikipedia entry ...