Talking to some friends, I was asked to explain the answer to the [Monty Hall problem][1] (see also [here][2];) .... they were having some trouble because whoever explained it to them didn't do a very good job. <sub>#Humblebrag</sub> I was able to explain it in under 30 seconds to most people (winning on staying is 1/3; winning on switching is 2/3 because it's based on losing the first pick, which is a 2/3); but some people just didn't understand....**is there any sure-fire method of teaching the answer to people?** <hr> Note: This question is not being asked about a math class per se, but is probably equally applicable to the classroom setting as it is to a group of friends. <hr> **EDIT:** I notice that a lot of the new answers don't understand what this question is asking. Pay attention to the bold text above, and realize that I understand the solution to the problem, but had some trouble explaining it to some friends....the focus of this question is *how to explain the answer*, **not** *what is the answer*. A question focusing just on the answer would probably fit in a lot better on [Mathematics][3] or [MathOverflow][4]; possibly [Cross Validated][5] (statistics). Thanks! :) After posting where to find other questions regarding directly to the problem itself, I found [this question][6] on Cross Validated -- it appears to be very, very related to my question. *(The letter copied in this [answer][7] to that question is hilarious, but very telling....)* [1]: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Monty_Hall_problem [2]: http://xkcd.com/1282/ [3]: http://math.stackexchange.com/ [4]: http://mathoverflow.net/ [5]: http://stats.stackexchange.com/ [6]: http://stats.stackexchange.com/q/373 [7]: http://stats.stackexchange.com/a/23674