Timeline for How to explain Monty Hall problem when they just don't get it

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Jun 16, 2014 at 21:19	comment	added	supercat		...and only allow the player to switch if the randomly-picked door didn't hold a car. In that case, a player whose initial choice was right would always get a chance to switch, while one whose initial choice was wrong would only be offered a chance to switch half the time. Switching under such circumstances would be a 50-50- proposition. An evil host would always show the car if it wasn't behind the player's door, and a massively benevolent one would only show it if it was behind the player's door. To always show an empty door and allow switching is mildly benevolent, not neutral.
Jun 16, 2014 at 21:15	comment	added	supercat		I think things can be made much clearer if one makes the probability of the host showing an empty door and allowing the player to switch contingent upon whether the player initially guessed correctly (the real Monty Hall would sometimes show the door with a car without offering the player a chance to switch). If the probability of being allowed to switch is affected by the correctness of the original choice, then the fact that one is offered a car should affect one's estimated probability if the original choice having been correct. Note that a "neutral" host would pick a door at random...
Jun 15, 2014 at 16:31	history	edited	WetlabStudent	CC BY-SA 3.0	added 191 characters in body
Jun 15, 2014 at 16:21	history	answered	WetlabStudent	CC BY-SA 3.0