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Jun 17, 2014 at 4:49 comment added Ryan Reich +1 for explicitly confronting the 50/50 misconception with an intuitively plausible scenario. As you say, it may not convince them, but it should make them think about what they believe, which is of course where they are wrong.
Jun 15, 2014 at 21:24 comment added cHao @Tutor: Saying "Door A is the car" is equivalent to saying "Every door but A is a goat". If Monty knows where the car is, and isn't allowed to reveal it, then all 98 of the doors he opens must be goats, and he has a 99% chance of ending up with the car. (The other 1% is yours.) On the other hand, if he doesn't know, then by eliminating all the other doors, he's effectively choosing one at random -- just like you did. His chances at that point are as good as yours.
Jun 15, 2014 at 21:11 comment added WetlabStudent @Tutor the last paragraph has to do with how he framed the problem. In this case the host opens doors in order until he reaches the car. If he reaches the last door its a 50:50 chance. This is not how the host behaves in the monty hall formulation (in an n door monty hall formulation, he'd open all the doors in one shot, seemingly at random - so that the position of the door does not give added information), its an illustrative example.
Jun 15, 2014 at 20:31 comment added cHao The real world kinda intrudes on the lottery example. Unless you're a game show host, you wouldn't want to give up a winning ticket. :) So if you come to me after, wanting to swap tickets with me, and you already know the outcome...heh. Unless i know you're so rich that that much money means nothing to you, i'd suspect i have the winning ticket, and wouldn't swap.
Jun 15, 2014 at 20:27 comment added Tutor Interesting....except in your last paragraph, I think that there still is 99:1 chance of winning by switching.....since there are two doors left, the first door you chose is either the car or isn't; and door 100 [in your last paragraph] MUST be the other....since in your first choosing, you had 99% chance losing, switching now is 99% chance winning
Jun 15, 2014 at 20:20 review First posts
Jun 16, 2014 at 0:03
Jun 15, 2014 at 20:03 history answered Paul Wright CC BY-SA 3.0