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I've recently been challenged on my proposal that a reasonable way to estimate a student's future GPA is to look at his/her current GPA. I am looking for any papers that study the correlation of students' GPAs along their academic career. In particular, I'd like to know the correlation between first-year grades and second-year grades and if the correlation varies by subject.

I've found some documents that look to be internal-use (for example, these http://www.baylor.edu/irt/index.php?id=75588 from Baylor University), but nothing that has been peer-reviewed.

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    $\begingroup$ I'm voting to close this question as off-topic because it seems better suited to SE Academia. $\endgroup$
    – Daniel R. Collins
    Commented Oct 5, 2016 at 0:35
  • $\begingroup$ I'm not quite sure what is the point of using statistics to confirm the obvious. It is one thing if you want to quantify just how strong the correlation is (and thus how reliable the prediction is), but there is no plausible grounds on which to challenge the mere assertion that past grades are a reasonable predictor of future grades. $\endgroup$
    – John Coleman
    Commented Oct 5, 2016 at 11:47

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